StatsOnSport . AnalysisWith Edge.
British Grand Prix Preview
Silverstone :: 06 July 2008
Start 14.00 GMT
Introduction
We’re almost at the midway point in the current season and exactly halfway in most previous seasons with Felipe Massa leading the championship by two points from Robert Kubica with Kimi Raikkonen five points back in third and Lewis Hamilton ten adrift. If Kimi Raikkonen is to win his second title, he’ll have to overcome some impressive halfway stats that point to Massa as the likely champion.
The Brazilian is the only driver to have won three races so far and of the last 21 champions, 19 had won three races or more by this stage of the season. 30 drivers have won a race like Raikkonen and Hamilton and then gone three races without winning and only three of those became eventual champions. Another stat against Hamilton and Kubica is that only Jacques Villeneuve and Michael Schumacher have won a championship when starting a season with less experience than 50 grand prix. With Massa available at 3.65 for the championship he has to be the value at this stage compared to Raikkonen at around evens, but we’d hold off until after this race because his price is likely to drift.
An interesting feature for the last 10 British Grand Prix winners is that 8/10 had finished fifth or better in the previous year’s race but only one – David Coulthard- was a defending champion. The top five last year were Raikkonen, Fernando Alonso, Hamilton, Kubica and Massa (who started in the pit lane).
A podium finish in the one of the two races preceding Silverstone is also a strong indicator for success as that’s been achieved by 15/20 winners. 11/20 had won one of those races with three of last four, like Raikkonen last year, doubling up in France and Britain. Raikkonen, Massa, Nick Heidfeld, Kubica and Coulthard are the podium finishers from France and Canada and that’s a clear pointer to Raikkonen with the others starting as they are.
A stat that’s against Hamilton is that Monaco winners have fared poorly at Silverstone over the past 20 years with only Fernando Alonso, two years ago, managing to double up and only another four finishing on the podium. Catalunya (7/15) and Magny-Cours (6/13) are the tracks with the best record for throwing up Silverstone winners with the winners in Spain failing to make podium only twice in 15 applicable instances.
Grid Position
Over 20 years at Silverstone, the fastest qualifier has edged the driver starting alongside by seven wins to five with the third fastest only just behind with four wins. Fourth and fifth have picked up two wins a piece but what’s interesting is that only two fastest qualifiers have won in the past ten years with two failing to finish. Second and third fastest have both picked up three wins with the slower qualifier edging the runners-up spot by three to one.
In the past six years, the top four have all finished but that may change this year if the rain as forecast materialises. With such solid finishing, it’s no real surprise that in recent years, qualifiers outside the top 10 have struggled to score points with Raikkonen finishing third from 12th the only exception in the past four seasons.
Leading qualifiers
Heikki Kovalainen, a driver dogged by ill fortune this season, claimed his first career pole with a blistering final lap. He’s the 22nd driver in the past 21 years to claim a maiden pole and five of those have won with all 13 who finished making it to the top three. Robert Kubica failed to convert in Bahrain this season when he landed his first pole, losing out to Massa, but the recent record isn’t bad with three of the last six winning, including Massa and Hamilton last year. McLaren have converted 11/21 poles over the past five seasons into wins and seven of their last ten but only three of the fastest qualifiers have won this season, compared to 6/8 at a similar stage last year.
Mark Webber (2nd) has freely admitted to being on a lighter fuel strategy than others but has every chance of a first podium of the season, and his second for Red Bull, especially if it is a rain affected race because it was under those conditions that he picked up a third place finish in Germany last season. Webber’s had one previous start as the second fastest qualifier (he failed to finish) and those trying for the second time have won just twice from 17 attempts over the past 21 years with nine podiums and six retirements. A Red Bull has never qualified higher than fourth, so it’s a great result at their home Grand Prix.
The last time Raikkonen started in third he failed to finish but that was because of the Hamilton shunt in Canada and he did win twice last year from such a starting position (France and Brazil) but those are his only two wins from 15 such starts. When the fastest Ferrari qualifier has started in third, they’ve won 8/27 races over the last ten years but only one of 13 since 2002 (Schumacher in 2003).
Lewis Hamilton (4th) is under immense pressure to put in a good performance having failed to pick up points in either of his last races. Last year he came to Silverstone after winning both North American races and finishing third at Magny-Cours; this time he’s pointless in his last two and another mistake in qualifying effectively ruined his chance of a front row start. He’s yet to win in four attempts from this position and his team have managed to do so only once in 21 starts over the past five years, picking up 12 podiums and 11/15 when the other McLaren driver has been the faster qualifier.
Other Top-10 qualifiers
Something of a rarity this season has been Nick Heidfeld starting ahead of his team-mate, Robert Kubica, who failed to complete Q3 and starts in 10th. Heidfeld has only ever had one podium from 11 third row starts and scored points in eight. Only two of the last ten starters from fifth at Silverstone have made the top three, so points are the most likely outcome for the German this weekend.
Renault continue to show good midfield pace but the fact that Alonso (6th) continues to talk about next year suggests all is not as the former champion might have expected. He’s scored points in half his races this season but only twice has finished higher than his qualifying position and with Massa and Kubica starting just behind could be vulnerable this weekend.
Team-mate Nelson Piquet’s (7th) season started at Magny-Cours two weeks ago when he picked up his first points of the season and took a point off Alonso in the closing stages. Wind and rain will be a test for any driver, especially a debutant, and first season drivers in slippery conditions starting roughly where Piquet does have a history of retirement. Of the last 15, only Kovalainen last year and Button eight years ago have scored points.
For the first time since Australia, Sebastian Vettel (8th) finds himself in the top 10 and we’d keep a watching brief on the young German because most of his best races have been when starting from a lowly position and in wet conditions last year, he finished fifth in Monaco and fourth in China. On the two previous occasions his team have had a top-10 starter they’ve both failed to complete.
Coming to Silverstone with flu and then a big practice race crash has been the story of Massa’s week and that’s been the reason for his poor qualifying sessions. Last year, he started from the pit lane and fought his way up to fifth. The Brazilian has a decent record when starting from lowly positions but the fact that only one driver has made podium from ninth at Silverstone in the last 20 years, and that was back in 1989 when five of the top eight failed to finish, suggests that podium may be beyond him. Only 3/43 Ferrari drivers have reached the top three from this starting position in the last 20 years.
Robert Kubica (10th) failed to set a time in final qualifying and has it all to do to stay second in the championship. Kubica has failed to finish in only two of his last 18 races but has scored points in only four of his 11 races when starting from the fourth or fifth row.
Best of the rest
The Williams has struggled this weekend and it’s hard to see either Kazuki Nakajima (15th) or Nico Rosberg (18th) making an impression, likewise the Honda’s from 16th and 17th unless it tips it down in which case Jenson Button (17th) is always an interesting proposition, but he’s had too many early lap incidents to interest us this weekend. David Coulthard (11th) in his final British Grand Prix starts just outside the top-10 and has scored points in 7/11 finished races from such a starting position for Red Bull with four retirements. Always strong in wet conditions, he’s an interesting proposition with his fuel load, if conditions turn in his favour.
Our View
The predominant forecast for the race is for heavy showers and that, together with an unusual front row, makes for a fascinating race. We can’t see Mark Webber winning because apart from his light fuel load, few drivers have succeeded from second on the grid having had only one such previous experience.
Kovalainen is in a strong position but maiden pole starters have a low conversion rate (5/21) although it has improved in recent seasons and Hamilton and Massa managed to convert when neither had won previously. Our concern with Kovalainen is that we believe he’s fuelled lighter than either Raikkonen or Hamilton and third fastest Kimi Raikkonen starts from a position that in the past ten years has bought almost as much success as the driver starting from second. Against Lewis Hamilton is the fact that few from fourth place on the gird have won at Silverstone and only one McLaren driver has done it in 21 races over the past five years.
We see this as a battle between the Finns, Kovalainen and Raikkonen and we’d give it to the reigning champion not just because he’s the longer priced at 3.5 compared to 2.98 for Kovalainen, but because this has been a better track for Ferrari in recent years. Furthermore, Raikkonen did it from third last year when a McLaren started on pole and Kovalainen lacks that previous winners stat at Silverstone of having been on the podium in one of the recent races. Our caveat is that Raikkonen’s race will be compromised if he can’t get past Webber early and there’s always the safety car issue which can always affect the best laid plans. Raikkonen is our choice but it may be prudent cover the stake with a saver on Kovalainen.
Elsewhere, we’d rather be a layer than a backer and laying Kubica for a points finish at 1.5 doesn’t have a lot of downside based on his record when starting as he does this weekend. But if you only want to lay just one, we’d concentrate on Nelson Piquet, if he can be laid at around evens, because of the poor points scoring record of first season drivers in the wet. There’s nothing much on the spreads at the time of publication, so we may revisit those markets just before the race once we can be more certain of the weather conditions.